The labor market still recovering: We should let it

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report released today by the Bureau of Labor Statistics shows signs of a continued slow recovery. Job openings fell slightly to 5.4 million, and the quits rate remained, stubbornly, at 1.9 percent, where it has been for most of the last year. Along with last Friday’s jobs report, today’s report provides more evidence of a recovering but still weak economy. While most indicators have been trending in the right direction, nominal wage growth and the prime-age employment-to-population ratio remain far outside of target ranges, and provide ample evidence that the economy has a way to go before reaching full employment.

In October, there were 1.5 unemployed workers for every job opening, a slight tick up from last month. That means they for every 15 jobs, there are five potential workers who won’t be able to find a job no matter how hard they look. And the job-seekers-to-job-openings ratio is higher among certain sectors. Notably, there are still 45 unemployed construction workers for every 10 job openings in construction.

The sluggish quits rate is particularly troubling. At 1.9 percent, the quits rate was still 9.2 percent lower than it was in 2007, before the recession began. This is evidence that workers are stuck in jobs that they would leave if they could. A larger number of people voluntarily quitting their jobs would indicate a strong labor market—one in which workers are able to leave jobs that are not right for them and find new ones. Hopefully we will see a return to pre-recession levels of voluntary quits, but given that the rate has stayed flat, we are obviously not there yet.

JOLTS

Hires, quits, and layoff rates, 2000-2015

Month Hires rate Layoffs rate Quits rate
Dec-2000 4.100000 1.400000 2.300000
Jan-2001 4.400000 1.600000 2.600000
Feb-2001 4.100000 1.400000 2.500000
Mar-2001 4.200000 1.600000 2.400000
Apr-2001 4.000000 1.500000 2.400000
May-2001 4.000000 1.500000 2.400000
Jun-2001 3.800000 1.500000 2.300000
Jul-2001 3.900000 1.500000 2.200000
Aug-2001 3.800000 1.400000 2.100000
Sep-2001 3.800000 1.600000 2.100000
Oct-2001 3.800000 1.700000 2.200000
Nov-2001 3.700000 1.600000 2.000000
Dec-2001 3.700000 1.400000 2.000000
Jan-2002 3.700000 1.400000 2.200000
Feb-2002 3.700000 1.500000 2.000000
Mar-2002 3.500000 1.400000 1.900000
Apr-2002 3.800000 1.500000 2.100000
May-2002 3.800000 1.500000 2.100000
Jun-2002 3.700000 1.400000 2.000000
Jul-2002 3.800000 1.500000 2.100000
Aug-2002 3.700000 1.400000 2.000000
Sep-2002 3.700000 1.400000 2.000000
Oct-2002 3.700000 1.400000 2.000000
Nov-2002 3.800000 1.500000 1.900000
Dec-2002 3.800000 1.500000 2.000000
Jan-2003 3.800000 1.500000 1.900000
Feb-2003 3.600000 1.500000 1.900000
Mar-2003 3.400000 1.400000 1.900000
Apr-2003 3.600000 1.600000 1.800000
May-2003 3.500000 1.500000 1.800000
Jun-2003 3.700000 1.600000 1.800000
Jul-2003 3.600000 1.600000 1.800000
Aug-2003 3.600000 1.500000 1.800000
Sep-2003 3.700000 1.500000 1.900000
Oct-2003 3.800000 1.400000 1.900000
Nov-2003 3.600000 1.400000 1.900000
Dec-2003 3.800000 1.500000 1.900000
Jan-2004 3.700000 1.500000 1.900000
Feb-2004 3.600000 1.400000 1.900000
Mar-2004 3.900000 1.400000 2.000000
Apr-2004 3.900000 1.500000 2.000000
May-2004 3.800000 1.400000 1.900000
Jun-2004 3.800000 1.400000 2.000000
Jul-2004 3.700000 1.400000 2.000000
Aug-2004 3.900000 1.500000 2.000000
Sep-2004 3.800000 1.400000 2.000000
Oct-2004 3.900000 1.400000 2.000000
Nov-2004 3.900000 1.500000 2.100000
Dec-2004 4.000000 1.500000 2.100000
Jan-2005 3.900000 1.400000 2.100000
Feb-2005 3.900000 1.400000 2.000000
Mar-2005 3.900000 1.500000 2.100000
Apr-2005 4.000000 1.400000 2.100000
May-2005 3.900000 1.400000 2.100000
Jun-2005 3.900000 1.500000 2.100000
Jul-2005 3.900000 1.400000 2.000000
Aug-2005 4.000000 1.400000 2.200000
Sep-2005 4.000000 1.400000 2.300000
Oct-2005 3.800000 1.300000 2.200000
Nov-2005 3.900000 1.200000 2.200000
Dec-2005 3.700000 1.300000 2.100000
Jan-2006 3.900000 1.300000 2.100000
Feb-2006 3.900000 1.300000 2.200000
Mar-2006 3.900000 1.200000 2.200000
Apr-2006 3.800000 1.300000 2.100000
May-2006 4.000000 1.400000 2.200000
Jun-2006 3.900000 1.200000 2.200000
Jul-2006 3.900000 1.300000 2.200000
Aug-2006 3.800000 1.200000 2.200000
Sep-2006 3.800000 1.300000 2.100000
Oct-2006 3.800000 1.300000 2.100000
Nov-2006 4.000000 1.300000 2.300000
Dec-2006 3.800000 1.300000 2.200000
Jan-2007 3.800000 1.200000 2.200000
Feb-2007 3.800000 1.300000 2.200000
Mar-2007 3.800000 1.300000 2.200000
Apr-2007 3.700000 1.300000 2.100000
May-2007 3.800000 1.300000 2.200000
Jun-2007 3.800000 1.300000 2.000000
Jul-2007 3.700000 1.300000 2.100000
Aug-2007 3.700000 1.300000 2.100000
Sep-2007 3.700000 1.500000 1.900000
Oct-2007 3.800000 1.400000 2.100000
Nov-2007 3.700000 1.400000 2.000000
Dec-2007 3.600000 1.300000 2.000000
Jan-2008 3.500000 1.300000 2.000000
Feb-2008 3.500000 1.400000 2.000000
Mar-2008 3.400000 1.300000 1.900000
Apr-2008 3.500000 1.300000 2.100000
May-2008 3.300000 1.300000 1.900000
Jun-2008 3.500000 1.500000 1.900000
Jul-2008 3.300000 1.400000 1.800000
Aug-2008 3.300000 1.600000 1.700000
Sep-2008 3.100000 1.400000 1.800000
Oct-2008 3.300000 1.600000 1.800000
Nov-2008 2.900000 1.600000 1.500000
Dec-2008 3.200000 1.800000 1.600000
Jan-2009 3.100000 1.900000 1.500000
Feb-2009 3.000000 1.900000 1.500000
Mar-2009 2.800000 1.800000 1.400000
Apr-2009 2.900000 2.000000 1.300000
May-2009 2.800000 1.600000 1.300000
Jun-2009 2.800000 1.600000 1.300000
Jul-2009 2.900000 1.700000 1.300000
Aug-2009 2.900000 1.600000 1.300000
Sep-2009 3.000000 1.600000 1.300000
Oct-2009 2.900000 1.500000 1.300000
Nov-2009 3.100000 1.400000 1.400000
Dec-2009 2.900000 1.500000 1.300000
Jan-2010 3.000000 1.400000 1.300000
Feb-2010 2.900000 1.400000 1.300000
Mar-2010 3.200000 1.400000 1.400000
Apr-2010 3.100000 1.300000 1.500000
May-2010 3.300000 1.300000 1.400000
Jun-2010 3.100000 1.500000 1.500000
Jul-2010 3.200000 1.600000 1.400000
Aug-2010 3.000000 1.400000 1.400000
Sep-2010 3.100000 1.400000 1.500000
Oct-2010 3.100000 1.300000 1.400000
Nov-2010 3.100000 1.400000 1.400000
Dec-2010 3.200000 1.400000 1.500000
Jan-2011 3.000000 1.300000 1.400000
Feb-2011 3.100000 1.300000 1.400000
Mar-2011 3.300000 1.300000 1.500000
Apr-2011 3.200000 1.300000 1.500000
May-2011 3.100000 1.300000 1.500000
Jun-2011 3.300000 1.400000 1.500000
Jul-2011 3.200000 1.300000 1.500000
Aug-2011 3.200000 1.300000 1.500000
Sep-2011 3.300000 1.300000 1.500000
Oct-2011 3.200000 1.300000 1.500000
Nov-2011 3.200000 1.300000 1.500000
Dec-2011 3.200000 1.300000 1.500000
Jan-2012 3.200000 1.300000 1.500000
Feb-2012 3.300000 1.300000 1.600000
Mar-2012 3.300000 1.300000 1.600000
Apr-2012 3.200000 1.400000 1.600000
May-2012 3.300000 1.400000 1.600000
Jun-2012 3.200000 1.300000 1.600000
Jul-2012 3.200000 1.200000 1.600000
Aug-2012 3.300000 1.400000 1.600000
Sep-2012 3.100000 1.300000 1.400000
Oct-2012 3.200000 1.300000 1.500000
Nov-2012 3.300000 1.300000 1.600000
Dec-2012 3.200000 1.100000 1.600000
Jan-2013 3.300000 1.200000 1.700000
Feb-2013 3.400000 1.200000 1.700000
Mar-2013 3.200000 1.300000 1.500000
Apr-2013 3.300000 1.300000 1.700000
May-2013 3.300000 1.300000 1.600000
Jun-2013 3.200000 1.200000 1.600000
Jul-2013 3.300000 1.200000 1.700000
Aug-2013 3.400000 1.200000 1.700000
Sep-2013 3.400000 1.300000 1.700000
Oct-2013 3.300000 1.100000 1.800000
Nov-2013 3.400000 1.100000 1.800000
Dec-2013 3.300000 1.200000 1.700000
Jan-2014 3.300000 1.300000 1.700000
Feb-2014 3.400000 1.200000 1.800000
Mar-2014 3.400000 1.200000 1.800000
Apr-2014 3.500000 1.200000 1.700000
May-2014 3.500000 1.200000 1.800000
Jun-2014 3.500000 1.200000 1.800000
Jul-2014 3.600000 1.300000 1.800000
Aug-2014 3.400000 1.200000 1.800000
Sep-2014 3.600000 1.200000 2.000000
Oct-2014 3.700000 1.200000 2.000000
Nov-2014 3.600000 1.100000 1.900000
Dec-2014 3.700000 1.200000 1.900000
Jan-2015 3.500000 1.200000 2.000000
Feb-2015 3.600000 1.200000 1.900000
Mar-2015 3.600000 1.300000 2.000000
Apr-2015 3.600000 1.300000 1.900000
May-2015 3.600000 1.200000 1.900000
Jun-2015 3.700000 1.300000 1.900000
Jul-2015 3.600000 1.200000 1.900000
Aug-2015 3.600000 1.200000 1.900000
Sep-2015 3.600000 1.300000 1.900000
Oct-2015 3.600000 1.200000 1.900000
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Note: Shaded areas denote recessions. The hires rate is the number of hires during the entire month as a percent of total employment. The layoff rate is the number of layoffs and discharges during the entire month as a percent of total employment. The quits rate is the number of quits during the entire month as a percent of total employment.

Source: EPI analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey

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Other signs of continued slack were found in the employment report last Friday. The prime-age employment to population ratio ticked up slightly in November after holding steady for most of the year. It now sits at 77.4 percent, 2.9 percentage points before its peak in January 2007 of 80.3 percent.

At its current rate of 77.4 percent, the prime-age EPOP is still below the lowest level of the last two full business cycles. And, it’s even further below its peak (81.9 percent) in the full employment economy of the late 1990s and 2000.

EPOP

And the final, but arguably most important, indicator of labor market slack (particularly for the Federal Reserve’s upcoming meeting), is wage growth. Year over year nominal hourly wage growth is 2.3 percent, stubbornly weak and significantly below target levels. While it is likely that the Fed will raise rates next week, the evidence continues to suggest that waiting until the labor market tightens further would be a better course of action.