The Game Is Rigged Against Hardworking Americans
The referee might miss an occasional handball, but a soccer game isn’t rigged in favor of one group of players over another. Unlike a soccer game, the most powerful economic actors have rigged the labor market against everyday hardworking Americans. The weak economy following the Great Recession and its aftermath came on the heels of three decades of the systematic reduction of workers bargaining power in the workplace. It’s no surprise then that this morning’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report shows that the quits rate remains depressed as workers continue to be stuck in jobs that they would leave if they could.
The figure below shows the hires, quits, and layoff rates through May 2015. The layoff rate shot up during the recession but recovered quickly and has been at pre-recession levels for more than three years. The fact that this trend continued in May is a good sign. That said, not only do layoffs need to come down before we see a full recovery in the labor market, but hiring also needs to pick up–the hires rate dipped slightly in May, and is still below where it was at the end of 2014. It had been generally improving, but has shown concerning signs as of late and still remains significantly below its pre-recession level.
Note: Shaded areas denote recessions. The hires rate is the number of hires during the entire month as a percent of total employment. The layoff rate is the number of layoffs and discharges during the entire month as a percent of total employment. The quits rate is the number of quits during the entire month as a percent of total employment. Source: EPI analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics Job Openings and Labor Turnover SurveyHires, quits, and layoff rates, December 2000-May 2015
Month
Hires rate
Layoffs rate
Quits rate
Dec-2000
4.1%
1.4%
2.3%
Jan-2001
4.4%
1.6%
2.6%
Feb-2001
4.1%
1.4%
2.5%
Mar-2001
4.2%
1.6%
2.4%
Apr-2001
4.0%
1.5%
2.4%
May-2001
4.0%
1.5%
2.4%
Jun-2001
3.8%
1.5%
2.3%
Jul-2001
3.9%
1.5%
2.2%
Aug-2001
3.8%
1.4%
2.1%
Sep-2001
3.8%
1.6%
2.1%
Oct-2001
3.8%
1.7%
2.2%
Nov-2001
3.7%
1.6%
2.0%
Dec-2001
3.7%
1.4%
2.0%
Jan-2002
3.7%
1.4%
2.2%
Feb-2002
3.7%
1.5%
2.0%
Mar-2002
3.5%
1.4%
1.9%
Apr-2002
3.8%
1.5%
2.1%
May-2002
3.8%
1.5%
2.1%
Jun-2002
3.7%
1.4%
2.0%
Jul-2002
3.8%
1.5%
2.1%
Aug-2002
3.7%
1.4%
2.0%
Sep-2002
3.7%
1.4%
2.0%
Oct-2002
3.7%
1.4%
2.0%
Nov-2002
3.8%
1.5%
1.9%
Dec-2002
3.8%
1.5%
2.0%
Jan-2003
3.8%
1.5%
1.9%
Feb-2003
3.6%
1.5%
1.9%
Mar-2003
3.4%
1.4%
1.9%
Apr-2003
3.6%
1.6%
1.8%
May-2003
3.5%
1.5%
1.8%
Jun-2003
3.7%
1.6%
1.8%
Jul-2003
3.6%
1.6%
1.8%
Aug-2003
3.6%
1.5%
1.8%
Sep-2003
3.7%
1.5%
1.9%
Oct-2003
3.8%
1.4%
1.9%
Nov-2003
3.6%
1.4%
1.9%
Dec-2003
3.8%
1.5%
1.9%
Jan-2004
3.7%
1.5%
1.9%
Feb-2004
3.6%
1.4%
1.9%
Mar-2004
3.9%
1.4%
2.0%
Apr-2004
3.9%
1.5%
2.0%
May-2004
3.8%
1.4%
1.9%
Jun-2004
3.8%
1.4%
2.0%
Jul-2004
3.7%
1.4%
2.0%
Aug-2004
3.9%
1.5%
2.0%
Sep-2004
3.8%
1.4%
2.0%
Oct-2004
3.9%
1.4%
2.0%
Nov-2004
3.9%
1.5%
2.1%
Dec-2004
4.0%
1.5%
2.1%
Jan-2005
3.9%
1.4%
2.1%
Feb-2005
3.9%
1.4%
2.0%
Mar-2005
3.9%
1.5%
2.1%
Apr-2005
4.0%
1.4%
2.1%
May-2005
3.9%
1.4%
2.1%
Jun-2005
3.9%
1.5%
2.1%
Jul-2005
3.9%
1.4%
2.0%
Aug-2005
4.0%
1.4%
2.2%
Sep-2005
4.0%
1.4%
2.3%
Oct-2005
3.8%
1.3%
2.2%
Nov-2005
3.9%
1.2%
2.2%
Dec-2005
3.7%
1.3%
2.1%
Jan-2006
3.9%
1.3%
2.1%
Feb-2006
3.9%
1.3%
2.2%
Mar-2006
3.9%
1.2%
2.2%
Apr-2006
3.8%
1.3%
2.1%
May-2006
4.0%
1.4%
2.2%
Jun-2006
3.9%
1.2%
2.2%
Jul-2006
3.9%
1.3%
2.2%
Aug-2006
3.8%
1.2%
2.2%
Sep-2006
3.8%
1.3%
2.1%
Oct-2006
3.8%
1.3%
2.1%
Nov-2006
4.0%
1.3%
2.3%
Dec-2006
3.8%
1.3%
2.2%
Jan-2007
3.8%
1.2%
2.2%
Feb-2007
3.8%
1.3%
2.2%
Mar-2007
3.8%
1.3%
2.2%
Apr-2007
3.7%
1.3%
2.1%
May-2007
3.8%
1.3%
2.2%
Jun-2007
3.8%
1.3%
2.0%
Jul-2007
3.7%
1.3%
2.1%
Aug-2007
3.7%
1.3%
2.1%
Sep-2007
3.7%
1.5%
1.9%
Oct-2007
3.8%
1.4%
2.1%
Nov-2007
3.7%
1.4%
2.0%
Dec-2007
3.6%
1.3%
2.0%
Jan-2008
3.5%
1.3%
2.0%
Feb-2008
3.5%
1.4%
2.0%
Mar-2008
3.4%
1.3%
1.9%
Apr-2008
3.5%
1.3%
2.1%
May-2008
3.3%
1.3%
1.9%
Jun-2008
3.5%
1.5%
1.9%
Jul-2008
3.3%
1.4%
1.8%
Aug-2008
3.3%
1.6%
1.7%
Sep-2008
3.1%
1.4%
1.8%
Oct-2008
3.3%
1.6%
1.8%
Nov-2008
2.9%
1.6%
1.5%
Dec-2008
3.2%
1.8%
1.6%
Jan-2009
3.1%
1.9%
1.5%
Feb-2009
3.0%
1.9%
1.5%
Mar-2009
2.8%
1.8%
1.4%
Apr-2009
2.9%
2.0%
1.3%
May-2009
2.8%
1.6%
1.3%
Jun-2009
2.8%
1.6%
1.3%
Jul-2009
2.9%
1.7%
1.3%
Aug-2009
2.9%
1.6%
1.3%
Sep-2009
3.0%
1.6%
1.3%
Oct-2009
2.9%
1.5%
1.3%
Nov-2009
3.1%
1.4%
1.4%
Dec-2009
2.9%
1.5%
1.3%
Jan-2010
3.0%
1.4%
1.3%
Feb-2010
2.9%
1.4%
1.3%
Mar-2010
3.2%
1.4%
1.4%
Apr-2010
3.1%
1.3%
1.5%
May-2010
3.3%
1.3%
1.4%
Jun-2010
3.1%
1.5%
1.5%
Jul-2010
3.2%
1.6%
1.4%
Aug-2010
3.0%
1.4%
1.4%
Sep-2010
3.1%
1.4%
1.5%
Oct-2010
3.1%
1.3%
1.4%
Nov-2010
3.1%
1.4%
1.4%
Dec-2010
3.2%
1.4%
1.5%
Jan-2011
3.0%
1.3%
1.4%
Feb-2011
3.1%
1.3%
1.4%
Mar-2011
3.3%
1.3%
1.5%
Apr-2011
3.2%
1.3%
1.5%
May-2011
3.1%
1.3%
1.5%
Jun-2011
3.3%
1.4%
1.5%
Jul-2011
3.2%
1.3%
1.5%
Aug-2011
3.2%
1.3%
1.5%
Sep-2011
3.3%
1.3%
1.5%
Oct-2011
3.2%
1.3%
1.5%
Nov-2011
3.2%
1.3%
1.5%
Dec-2011
3.2%
1.3%
1.5%
Jan-2012
3.2%
1.3%
1.5%
Feb-2012
3.3%
1.3%
1.6%
Mar-2012
3.3%
1.3%
1.6%
Apr-2012
3.2%
1.4%
1.6%
May-2012
3.3%
1.4%
1.6%
Jun-2012
3.2%
1.3%
1.6%
Jul-2012
3.2%
1.2%
1.6%
Aug-2012
3.3%
1.4%
1.6%
Sep-2012
3.1%
1.3%
1.4%
Oct-2012
3.2%
1.3%
1.5%
Nov-2012
3.3%
1.3%
1.6%
Dec-2012
3.2%
1.1%
1.6%
Jan-2013
3.3%
1.2%
1.7%
Feb-2013
3.4%
1.2%
1.7%
Mar-2013
3.2%
1.3%
1.5%
Apr-2013
3.3%
1.3%
1.7%
May-2013
3.3%
1.3%
1.6%
Jun-2013
3.2%
1.2%
1.6%
Jul-2013
3.3%
1.2%
1.7%
Aug-2013
3.4%
1.2%
1.7%
Sep-2013
3.4%
1.3%
1.7%
Oct-2013
3.3%
1.1%
1.8%
Nov-2013
3.4%
1.1%
1.8%
Dec-2013
3.3%
1.2%
1.7%
Jan-2014
3.3%
1.3%
1.7%
Feb-2014
3.4%
1.2%
1.8%
Mar-2014
3.4%
1.2%
1.8%
Apr-2014
3.5%
1.2%
1.7%
May-2014
3.5%
1.2%
1.8%
Jun-2014
3.5%
1.2%
1.8%
Jul-2014
3.6%
1.3%
1.8%
Aug-2014
3.4%
1.2%
1.8%
Sep-2014
3.6%
1.2%
2.0%
Oct-2014
3.7%
1.2%
2.0%
Nov-2014
3.6%
1.1%
1.9%
Dec-2014
3.7%
1.2%
1.9%
Jan-2015
3.5%
1.2%
2.0%
Feb-2015
3.6%
1.2%
1.9%
Mar-2015
3.6%
1.3%
2.0%
Apr-2015
3.6%
1.3%
1.9%
May-2015
3.5%
1.2%
1.9%
The voluntary quits rate held steady at 1.9 percent in May, where it has sat for most of the last six months. In May, the quits rate was still 9.2 percent lower than it was in 2007, before the recession began. A larger number of people voluntarily quitting their jobs indicates a strong labor market–one in which workers are able to leave jobs that are not right for them and find new ones. Before long, we should look for a return to pre-recession levels of voluntary quits, which would mean that fewer workers are locked into jobs they would leave if they could. But, as with previous months, we are not there yet.
Evidence in today’s release corroborate last week’s jobs report, which continued to provide evidence that the economy is only at a slow jog, with meager wage growth and a falling labor force. There continues to be a significant gap between the number of job seekers and the number of job openings. The figure below illustrates the overall improvement in the economy over the last five years as the unemployment level continues to fall and job openings rise. A tighter economy (like the one shown in the initial year of data) would have these levels much closer together. It’s clear that there remains significant slack in the economy. Furthermore, on top of the 8+ million unemployed workers warming the bench, there are still about three million workers sitting in the stands with little hope to even get in the game.
Note: Shaded areas denote recessions. Source: EPI analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey and Current Population SurveyJob openings levels and unemployment levels, December 2000-May 2015
Month
Job Openings level
Unemployment level
Dec-2000
4.934
5.634
Jan-2001
5.273
6.023
Feb-2001
4.706
6.089
Mar-2001
4.618
6.141
Apr-2001
4.668
6.271
May-2001
4.444
6.226
Jun-2001
4.232
6.484
Jul-2001
4.354
6.583
Aug-2001
4.095
7.042
Sep-2001
3.973
7.142
Oct-2001
3.594
7.694
Nov-2001
3.545
8.003
Dec-2001
3.586
8.258
Jan-2002
3.587
8.182
Feb-2002
3.412
8.215
Mar-2002
3.605
8.304
Apr-2002
3.357
8.599
May-2002
3.525
8.399
Jun-2002
3.325
8.393
Jul-2002
3.343
8.39
Aug-2002
3.462
8.304
Sep-2002
3.319
8.251
Oct-2002
3.502
8.307
Nov-2002
3.585
8.52
Dec-2002
3.074
8.64
Jan-2003
3.686
8.52
Feb-2003
3.402
8.618
Mar-2003
3.101
8.588
Apr-2003
3.182
8.842
May-2003
3.201
8.957
Jun-2003
3.356
9.266
Jul-2003
3.195
9.011
Aug-2003
3.239
8.896
Sep-2003
3.054
8.921
Oct-2003
3.196
8.732
Nov-2003
3.316
8.576
Dec-2003
3.334
8.317
Jan-2004
3.391
8.37
Feb-2004
3.437
8.167
Mar-2004
3.42
8.491
Apr-2004
3.466
8.17
May-2004
3.658
8.212
Jun-2004
3.384
8.286
Jul-2004
3.835
8.136
Aug-2004
3.578
7.99
Sep-2004
3.704
7.927
Oct-2004
3.779
8.061
Nov-2004
3.456
7.932
Dec-2004
3.846
7.934
Jan-2005
3.595
7.784
Feb-2005
3.842
7.98
Mar-2005
3.891
7.737
Apr-2005
4.115
7.672
May-2005
3.824
7.651
Jun-2005
4.018
7.524
Jul-2005
4.162
7.406
Aug-2005
4.085
7.345
Sep-2005
4.227
7.553
Oct-2005
4.23
7.453
Nov-2005
4.341
7.566
Dec-2005
4.249
7.279
Jan-2006
4.278
7.064
Feb-2006
4.308
7.184
Mar-2006
4.537
7.072
Apr-2006
4.495
7.12
May-2006
4.432
6.98
Jun-2006
4.331
7.001
Jul-2006
4.081
7.175
Aug-2006
4.411
7.091
Sep-2006
4.498
6.847
Oct-2006
4.454
6.727
Nov-2006
4.622
6.872
Dec-2006
4.552
6.762
Jan-2007
4.59
7.116
Feb-2007
4.481
6.927
Mar-2007
4.657
6.731
Apr-2007
4.534
6.85
May-2007
4.531
6.766
Jun-2007
4.639
6.979
Jul-2007
4.43
7.149
Aug-2007
4.508
7.067
Sep-2007
4.481
7.17
Oct-2007
4.278
7.237
Nov-2007
4.278
7.24
Dec-2007
4.323
7.645
Jan-2008
4.223
7.685
Feb-2008
4.039
7.497
Mar-2008
4.012
7.822
Apr-2008
3.85
7.637
May-2008
4
8.395
Jun-2008
3.67
8.575
Jul-2008
3.762
8.937
Aug-2008
3.584
9.438
Sep-2008
3.21
9.494
Oct-2008
3.273
10.074
Nov-2008
3.059
10.538
Dec-2008
3.049
11.286
Jan-2009
2.763
12.058
Feb-2009
2.794
12.898
Mar-2009
2.493
13.426
Apr-2009
2.271
13.853
May-2009
2.413
14.499
Jun-2009
2.388
14.707
Jul-2009
2.146
14.601
Aug-2009
2.294
14.814
Sep-2009
2.434
15.009
Oct-2009
2.376
15.352
Nov-2009
2.419
15.219
Dec-2009
2.49
15.098
Jan-2010
2.706
15.046
Feb-2010
2.561
15.113
Mar-2010
2.652
15.202
Apr-2010
3.097
15.325
May-2010
2.9
14.849
Jun-2010
2.728
14.474
Jul-2010
2.929
14.512
Aug-2010
2.869
14.648
Sep-2010
2.782
14.579
Oct-2010
3.026
14.516
Nov-2010
3.072
15.081
Dec-2010
2.909
14.348
Jan-2011
2.917
14.046
Feb-2011
3.065
13.828
Mar-2011
3.132
13.728
Apr-2011
3.099
13.956
May-2011
3.032
13.853
Jun-2011
3.194
13.958
Jul-2011
3.417
13.756
Aug-2011
3.138
13.806
Sep-2011
3.557
13.929
Oct-2011
3.422
13.599
Nov-2011
3.215
13.309
Dec-2011
3.527
13.071
Jan-2012
3.653
12.812
Feb-2012
3.517
12.828
Mar-2012
3.837
12.696
Apr-2012
3.627
12.636
May-2012
3.696
12.668
Jun-2012
3.785
12.688
Jul-2012
3.587
12.657
Aug-2012
3.637
12.449
Sep-2012
3.614
12.106
Oct-2012
3.729
12.141
Nov-2012
3.741
12.026
Dec-2012
3.64
12.272
Jan-2013
3.77
12.497
Feb-2013
4.023
11.967
Mar-2013
3.891
11.653
Apr-2013
3.84
11.735
May-2013
3.829
11.671
Jun-2013
3.864
11.736
Jul-2013
3.829
11.357
Aug-2013
3.893
11.241
Sep-2013
3.955
11.251
Oct-2013
4.076
11.161
Nov-2013
4.073
10.814
Dec-2013
3.977
10.376
Jan-2014
3.906
10.28
Feb-2014
4.160
10.387
Mar-2014
4.210
10.384
Apr-2014
4.417
9.696
May-2014
4.608
9.761
Jun-2014
4.710
9.453
Jul-2014
4.726
9.648
Aug-2014
4.925
9.568
Sep-2014
4.678
9.237
Oct-2014
4.849
8.983
Nov-2014
4.886
9.071
Dec-2014
4.877
8.688
Jan-2015
4.965
8.979
Feb-2015
5.144
8.705
Mar-2015
5.109
8.575
Apr-2015
5.334
8.549
May-2015
5.363
8.674
While the topline numbers indicate that there are still 16 job seekers for every 10 job openings, there are some differences in labor market activity across sectors. There appears to be a continued tightening in the healthcare and social assistance sector–not surprising given their steady employment gains. At the other end of the spectrum, we find nearly 50 unemployed construction job seekers for every 10 construction job openings, something to consider as Congress begins to debate highway funding.
A strong labor market is one in which every worker has a good chance to join in and play a fair game. As both this week’s JOLTS and last week’s jobs reports show, however, the referees are still pulling the strings to keep workers sidelined without decent paying jobs, or jobs at all, while those few at the top reap the benefits.
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