September Fed decision was the right one for communities of color

At the conclusion of their most recent meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decided against a September interest rate hike. Their decision is consistent with conclusions drawn in a recent analysis by our colleague Josh Bivens. Using the Fed’s own economic projections and other historical data, he makes the case that even a small increase in interest rates is far more likely to slow the economy and deter progress in reducing unemployment than holding interest rates steady is likely to trigger accelerating inflation. Their decision also lets jobseekers breathe a temporary sigh of relief—particularly people of color, who have seen the strongest labor market gains over the last couple years, but who still face extremely high rates of unemployment in some parts of the country.

The table below shows unemployment rates by race and ethnicity for each of the 12 metro areas with a Federal Reserve Bank, as well as other large metro areas across the country with sizable black or Latino populations. We only present unemployment rates for metro areas where the sample size was large enough to generate a reliable estimate for a particular race or ethnic group. These data show that nationally, the black unemployment rate has declined 3.1 percentage points over the last two years, compared with a 2 percentage points decline for Hispanics and a 1.2 percentage point improvement for whites. Although double-digit rates of black unemployment were more of a norm just two years ago than now, African Americans are still suffering from staggering unemployment, with rates higher than 10 percent in Chicago, Detroit, and Philadelphia. With the exception of Dallas, Latinos are more likely to be unemployed than whites in each of the selected metro areas, but Hispanic unemployment rates remain most elevated in Philadelphia and Chicago.

Table 1

Unemployment rates by race and ethnicity for selected metro areas, 2014 and 2016

2016
Unemployment rate
USA Atlanta Baltimore Boston Charlotte Chicago Cleveland Detroit Dallas Kansas City Los Angeles Minneapolis New York Philadelphia Richmond St. Louis San Francisco
All 5.0% 5.2% 4.5% 3.6% 4.9% 5.8% 5.8% 5.3% 3.4% 4.2% 4.9% 3.6% 4.8% 5.2% 3.5% 5.0% 4.2%
White 4.0% 3.6% 2.9% 3.2% 4.3% 4.0% 4.2% 4.2% 2.9% 3.1% 4.3% 2.9% 3.6% 3.7% 2.6% 4.1% 3.9%
Black 8.7% 7.3% 7.7% 7.1% 12.7% 10.3% 5.7% 8.9% 6.7% 10.4% 8.3%
Hispanic 5.9% 4.0% 5.4% 7.2% 2.8% 5.2% 6.2% 8.3% 5.0%
Black-white unemployment rate ratio
2.2 2.0 2.6 1.7 3.2 2.5 2.0 2.1 1.9 2.9 2.1
Percentage point difference between black and white unemployment rates
4.7 3.7 4.7 2.8 8.7 6.1 2.8 4.6 3.1 6.8 4.3
2014
Unemployment rate
USA Atlanta Baltimore Boston Charlotte Chicago Cleveland Detroit Dallas Kansas City Los Angeles Minneapolis New York Philadelphia Richmond St. Louis San Francisco
All 6.5% 7.2% 5.8% 5.9% 7.5% 7.3% 7.3% 8.6% 5.5% 5.2% 7.8% 4.4% 6.9% 7.1% 5.5% 7.5% 6.9%
White 5.1% 4.3% 4.6% 4.8% 4.7% 5.0% 5.2% 6.9% 3.8% 4.1% 6.8% 3.5% 4.8% 5.5% 4.0% 5.9% 4.8%
Black 11.8% 12.7% 9.7% 12.9% 15.4% 15.0% 10.0% 15.6% 11.7% 11.5% 14.7%
Hispanic 7.9% 5.6% 10.1% 9.0% 6.3% 8.5% 8.7% 11.7% 8.2%
Black-white unemployment ratio
2.3 2.9 2.1 2.8 3.1 2.2 2.6 2.3 2.4 2.1 2.5
Percentage point difference between black and white unemployment rates
6.7 8.4 5.1 8.2 10.4 8.2 6.2 8.9 6.9 5.9 8.8
Percentage point change in unemployment rate, 2014-2016
USA Atlanta Baltimore Boston Charlotte Chicago Cleveland Detroit Dallas Kansas City Los Angeles Minneapolis New York Philadelphia Richmond St. Louis San Francisco
All -1.5 -2.0 -1.3 -2.2 -2.6 -1.5 -1.5 -3.3 -2.0 -1.0 -2.9 -0.9 -2.1 -1.9 -2.0 -2.5 -2.6
White -1.2 -0.7 -1.6 -1.6 -0.4 -1.0 -1.0 -2.7 -0.9 -1.0 -2.4 -0.6 -1.2 -1.9 -1.4 -1.9 -0.9
Black -3.1 -5.4 -2.0 -5.8 -2.7 -4.7 -4.3 -6.7 -5.0 -1.0 -6.4
Hispanic -2.0 -1.6 -4.7 -1.9 -3.5 -3.3 -2.4 -3.5 -3.1

Notes: Unemployment rates in each year are the 12-month average from September of the previous year through August of the current year.

Source: EPI analysis of basic monthly Current Population Survey microdata.

Copy the code below to embed this chart on your website.

While the Fed’s decision not to raise rates this month is likely to continue to yield the largest labor market gains for African Americans, who still have the highest rates of unemployment, some argue that keeping the federal funds rate at or near zero for an extended period of time will have a limited effect on reducing the long-standing 2-to-1 unemployment rate ratio between black and white workers. Former Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank president, Naranya Kocherlakota recently wrote about the remarkable durability of this ratio over the last 40 years. The table also shows that the 2-to-1 ratio between black and white unemployment rates is fairly consistent across metro areas as well, but is currently closer to 3-to-1 in Chicago and Philadelphia.

Despite these remaining challenges, it’s clear that the Fed’s sustained low interest rate policy position has helped lower black unemployment in many of the country’s largest metro areas. Further, while the ratio of black to white unemployment rates remains largely constant, the percentage point difference between these rates continues to shrink as the economy improves. The Fed’s low interest rate policy has been instrumental in helping the economy recover in the face of stiff headwinds stemming from fiscal austerity that has unnecessarily prolonged these troubling rates of joblessness and inequality.